Customer Trends and Food Preference: Impact on Ag Markets

By Michelle Pelletier Marshall, Women in Agribusiness Media (November 16, 2025)

The decisions from farm to fork are fueled by one very powerful influence: consumer preferences. Each action along the ag value chain is triggered by what the desired end result is in food choices, and in today’s market, that is for foods that emphasis health, convenience and quality, and they are steering the future of ag.

Central to succeeding on this ag roadway, as Xinnan Li, senior analyst with RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness, explained at the 2025 Women in Agribusiness (WIA) Summit in September in Orlando, is consideration for the current bifurcated economy where wealthier Americans are engaging their purchasing power, while lower-income Americans are starting to pull back, also called a K-shaped economy. Sectors like food and ag are among the first to experience the effects of this.

“The wealth effect is real,” said Li to the hundreds of women in attendance at the 14th annual WIA Summit. “The divide between the rich and poor is getting bigger.”

Li noted that since coming out of the pandemic, consumers have been making more income, but they have been spending more, such that in the last three years earnings have not kept up with spending and excess savings are in the negative.

“If we're looking at spending by income group, we can see for the lower income and middle-income group, their spending went up about 20% in the past five years. And it's really tapered off in the last four quarters. But for the high-income group, their spending went up over 50%. And it's not slowing down.”

Li pointed out that this is not comparing their spending with each other – it is comparing their spending with themselves five years ago.

And how does this affect the ag supply chain? It’s key for the economy and for consumption because the two groups – the rich and the poor – are going to shop in different channels, buy different foods and have a different threshold for cost. This, coupled with policy shifts, the GLP-1 drops and demographic changes, said Li “are forces that will change the strategic position of our food and ag industry for years to come.”

In her presentation, Li also addressed U.S. policies affecting food purchasing decisions, such as ongoing tariff wars that are significantly increasing retail food prices and imports of fresh fruits, vegetables and seafood. Additionally, she said, inflation for food service and shelter went up over 20% while average weekly earnings went up about 14.6%.

Xinnan Li of RaboResearch speaks at the Women in Agribusiness 2025 in Orlando

Putting food cost in terms of the number of minutes worked, 35 minutes of work used to buy a six-pack of drinks, now it’s 42 minutes. And a burger? That went from 15 minutes to 20 minutes. “We're working harder and longer for the same amount of food,” said Li.

“We all do think that the food and ag industry is pretty recession-proof, but really in the face of long-term inflation, our industry is going to feel the pain as well. What we have right now is a consumer that's cautious, that's cutting down on their discretionary spending, but not just clothing and gadgets, they're also cutting down on alcohol consumption and on going out to eat. Again, we're probably going to see a recovery to mid-next year or 2027, but we do think it's going to be a very slow climb because of the inflation scenario we're facing right now.”

Li also covered the influence of GLP-1 drug increase, an aging U.S. population and more in her WIA Summit presentation.

Join the WIA community to learn more, or join us at the 2026 Summit in New Orleans, September 22-24, for intriguing new presentations and an up-to-the-minute view into the food and ag sector.