What’s the Fix for Ag in 2026?

By Michelle Pelletier Marshall, Women in Agribusiness Media (February 3, 2026)

Two thousand twenty-five saw much disruption in the U.S. ag sector: higher input costs, stagnant grain prices, continuing inflation, disappointing returns for some of the world’s largest agribusinesses, not to mention the race to find new global partners to replace lost soybean sales to China due to trade and tariff uncertainty.

But, ever proving their resiliency, farmers reported bumper crops for wheat, corn and rice, adopted technologies like AI and automation, advocated for policy changes, and embraced innovative income-diversification strategies, such as agrotourism, which grew significantly last year, with an expected CAGR of 11.9% from 2025 to 2030, according to Grand View Research.

Meanwhile the new administration flexed its muscles in establishing new trade pacts, like with Argentina, Australia and Asian countries like Vietnam and South Korea, announced new R&D priorities, and authorized $12 billion in farmer bridge payments for those impacted by market disruptions.

But is this enough for the U.S. to be a global ag superpower again? Is any relief expected in 2026? WIA Today looked to Karen Braun, chief market analyst, at Zaner Ag Hedge, which provides market insight and risk management strategies to those in the ag value chain, to answer some of the tough questions…

1). Can U.S. soybean farmers recover from the 2025 loss of their biggest customer, China? How do you see this happening in 2026?

Troubles with China undoubtedly leave huge scars on the U.S. soybean industry. Last year’s U.S. soybean exports to China could have been 75% smaller and China still would have been the top destination. The impact can’t be overstated. However, U.S. farmers responded appropriately to market signals in 2025, significantly reducing soybean plantings in favor of corn. That has allowed for the U.S. to stay firmly in control of global corn exports, holding Brazil to a distant second. If the trade deal is to be trusted, China should still be in the U.S. soy market for the next three years, buying a fixed 25 million metric tons per year. But that’s a modest volume, and it is very difficult to spin this as bullish since it could redirect some of the standard U.S. business down to Brazil, which keeps expanding its crop each year. I think that the situation can be maintained, however, so long as U.S. farmers don’t go too heavy on the soybean acres in 2026.

2). What are the current economic indicators for the new year and how can agribusinesses and farmers alike utilize the info to plan for the new year?

Farm income and profitability are key topics. Official farm income forecasts are not yet available, but U.S. Net Farm Income (NFI) in 2026 could appear larger than meets the eye due to an unusually large portion coming from direct government payments. Another interesting dynamic arose in 2024 and accelerated in 2025, and that was cash receipts for animal products solidly outpacing crop receipts for the first time in several decades. This reflects the struggles that row crop farmers have faced in a low-price, high-competition environment. Geopolitical uncertainty also looms large, with tariffs threatening to resurface at any time. More than ever, industry participants must stay in the know, keep up with markets not only at home but also abroad, and even outside of the traditional agriculture space (macroeconomics matter!). Get help planning, marketing, hedging, strategizing if you need – sometimes turning to the professionals to help sort out tough financial situations can minimize emotionally charged decisions, or mistakes. Remove emotions and biases anywhere you can – an objective approach sometimes is the most sound.

3). What market shifts will be the ones to watch in the first quarter?

U.S. corn exports have been on a blistering pace since the 2025/26 marketing year began in September, but the traditional peak of export season begins in March. The market will remain glued to how resilient corn shipments can remain through this period, and whether the government is still understating its record export target. U.S. soybean exports to non-China destinations are not talked about enough, and since China has all but wrapped up its 12 million-metric-ton purchase promise, it will be up to other importers to keep export demand for U.S. soybeans going and prevent a further swelling of stockpiles. The U.S. EPA is also expected to finalize biofuel blending mandates in the first quarter of 2026, and this is a critical source of soybean demand in the absence of the formerly strong export program. Incentivizing the expansion of domestic processing will be key in stabilizing the future of the U.S. soybean industry, but this cannot happen overnight. The dynamics between corn and soybean prices in the first quarter will also be very telling as to U.S. farmer planting choices in the spring. Will corn plantings remain unusually high in 2026?

4). What are the top three global themes in agriculture that you’re watching for 2026?

1). Wheat crops in major exporting countries were stellar last year, the first time that global wheat production really fired on all (most) cylinders in several years. With a wheat supply hangover, how will producers respond in the 2026/27 growing season, and will global wheat stockpiles swell further? Where will the shortfalls be?

2). Chinese economy. China’s economic growth has been slowing in the last several years, particularly since the pandemic. This could limit its agricultural import demand, and it may cause for a smaller-than-expected increase in annual soybean consumption. This should be most alarming for Brazilian producers, who have been drastically expanding soybean plantings in recent years to accommodate the demand growth. But will Brazilian producers finally push the envelope too far in 2026?

3). U.S. corn yields. U.S. farmers notched a record corn yield in 2025, the third consecutive year of new yield records (that was the first three-in-a-row since the 1980s). But can farmers do it again in 2026? Are genetics still rapidly improving, or was 2025 just an outlier?

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Get a better handle on the agriculture markets in 2026! For a limited time, Zaner Ag Hedge is offering a WIA-exclusive discount of 26% off Braun’s data-driven newsletter, Market Context. This is a savings of $433 on a full year!

Visit www.zaneraghedge.com/wia and use code WIA26. Offer valid through Feb. 17.

ABOUT KAREN BRAUN

As chief market analyst for Zaner Ag Hedge, Braun offers a wide array of insights on the global agricultural markets, the analysis heavily driven by her scientific mindset. She has a passion for education, statistics, and charts, using them to put context behind the hot topics driving commodity prices. Prior to Zaner, Braun spent nearly a decade as the global agriculture columnist for Reuters News, and she holds two degrees in meteorology. Follow her on X (@kannbwx) for her daily market expertise and sign up here to receive her full suite of commentary. 

Braun also was one of the keynote speakers at the 2025 Women in Agribusiness Summit, which was held in Orlando, Florida, September 22-24. Hear more from Braun about the 2025 market shifts in her pre-event interview here.