Q&A: How Global Trade Tensions Are Reshaping Ag Markets

By Crystal Futrell, MEAT+POULTRY, (June 15, 2026)

Reprinted with permission. Original published by www.meatpoultry.com.

Geopolitics has always been an integral element of agricultural commodities markets. With last year’s onslaught of US tariffs straining trade partnerships to this year’s conflict in the Middle East staunching a vital shipping lane, geopolitics seems to have elevated as the major factor driving markets in recent years. 

Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow emeritus at the International Food Policy Research Institute, will share his perspective at this year’s Sosland Purchasing Seminar event on how global trade is navigating these geopolitical issues. Glauber spent over 30 years at the US Department of Agriculture, including as chief economist from 2008 to 2014. As chief economist, he was responsible for the department’s agricultural forecasts and projections; oversaw climate, energy and regulatory issues; and served as chairman of the board of directors of the Federal Crop Insurance Corp. 

MEAT+POULTRY’s sister publication Milling & Baking News recently spoke with Glauber about how escalating geopolitical tensions are influencing global trade flows, agricultural input costs and export markets.

Milling & Baking News: The conflict with Iran is currently disrupting global trade, and the outlook for a resolution seems grim. If no resolution comes, how will the markets/participants adjust? 

Thus far, this is largely a supply crisis in the sense we are seeing elevated energy and fertilizer prices. Significantly, grain and oilseed prices are much more subdued. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the bigger the impact on fertilizer markets. The big question is whether this will impact production significantly enough to raise crop prices. We did not see big production impacts in 2022 when fertilizer prices were even higher than they are now. 

MBN: How does the current Middle East situation and its impact on global trade compare with the “Liberation Day” tariff event that the Trump administration launched last year?

The most recent trade war with China over tariffs has had an enormous impact on US exports, particularly soybeans. US soybean exports to China were down 75% in 2025 compared to 2024 (calendar year). We were able to sell more soybeans to a number of other markets, but not nearly enough to offset the loss to China. Thus far, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has increased fertilizer prices and adversely affected margins, but for those who bought inputs in the fall or prior to February 28, they won't be much affected until next planting season. Southern hemisphere producers will likely be harder hit (presuming prices remain high through the rest of the year).

MBN: War, weather and China seem to be the key factors that move markets. How much can the US rely on China as a trading partner?

I would argue that China has been very good for US agriculture. We have had serious trade concerns with China on a variety of issues, but less so with agriculture than non-agricultural goods. US agriculture unfortunately has suffered collateral damage in these trade wars.

MBN: Will the US ever be able to diversify its trade partnerships to the level that it no longer needs China? 

China is the world’s largest importer of agricultural products. It is and will be an important destination for US exporters. I often have to remind people that the US doesn’t “export”, private companies export and those companies will sell product to whomever is buying. The US government can help facilitate that trade by negotiating improved market access through free trade agreements, multilateral agreements, etc. It can also hurt trade through unilateral actions that precipitate retaliations against US products (like we have seen in the trade wars with China).

MBN: US corn and soybean meal exports seem to be doing very well in the export market. Will they be able to sustain their momentum?

Corn has been helped by increased demand in Mexico due to the suspension of imports of feeder cattle. That will not likely continue once the border is re-opened, but Mexico still remains a top market for US corn. Soybean meal exports are being driven by the biodiesel boom as more soybeans stay home to be crushed rather than exported. If biodiesel demand increases as forecast there will be more soybean meal to export. 

MBN: The sunset review period for the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) is slated to occur this July. What are your thoughts on this important trade deal with the United States’ closest neighbors? What modifications do you think Canada or Mexico will want to renegotiate? 

I would argue that USMCA has been invaluable for US agriculture. The first principle in the review should be “do no harm”.  I think Canada and Mexico agree with this as well.