Soybean Growers Worry as Harvest Nears With No China Sales

This article, written by Philip Brasher, editor in chief of Agri-Pulse, has been reprinted with permission from Agri-Pulse, a WIA Summit 2025 Event Partner. See the original article here (September 9, 2025).

Justin Sherlock and other North Dakota farmers are just a month away from combining their soybean crop, and their biggest market, China, has yet to order a single bushel.

As a result, local cash bids in Sherlock’s area were down to $9.09 a bushel on Tuesday, $1.40 below the CME Group’s November futures price. That spread, or basis, would normally be about 70 to 90 cents a bushel, said Sherlock, who farms north of Valley City in eastern North Dakota.

Soybeans readied for shipment (USDA photo)

The problem for farmers is that China’s current duty on U.S. soybeans is now 20% higher than the tariff on South American soybeans, even as President Donald Trump threatens increased tariffs on China. China has no purchase orders so far for the 2024 U.S. soybean crop.

Farmers in the northern Plains, who are especially dependent on the Chinese market, have been particularly hard hit.

Roughly 50% of the North Dakota crop has historically gone to China via Pacific Northwest ports.

“China already had some commitments and orders on the books when the trade war started last time,” Sherlock told Agri-Pulse, referring to the retaliatory tariffs the Chinese imposed in 2018 after Trump hit China with stiff new duties.

“This time around, they have nothing, and they have not come to purchase our beans as of yet. So, we're really struggling without them coming to the table, or buying any soybeans at all. And last time around, Brazilian production was also much lower.”

After their first trade war with Trump, the Chinese started turning toward Brazil to amass alternative supplies, and that strategy has paid off so far this year.

China has been “building up their reserve supplies to very large levels, somewhere over 30 million metric tons,” giving them a bridge to next year when the next South American crop will become available, said Dan Basse, president of Ag Resource Co. “In other words, they won't need U.S. soybeans at all, and they can use that as leverage in trade negotiations with the United States.”

China would usually be ordering from the new U.S. soybean crop from September through January but is continuing to stockpile the Brazilian crop. China has ordered 12 million metric tons from Brazil for September delivery, up to 7 million tons for October and up to 2 million for November, Basse said.

“There may be a small window that the Chinese would have to buy U.S. soybeans from the end of November through the middle or end of January, depending upon when the Brazilian soybean crop can be planted, but it's a small window,” Basse said.

A top Chinese trade negotiator is in Washington this week for talks with the Trump administration, according to news reports.

Chinese embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu said he had no information to provide on negotiations this week.

“I would like to emphasize that the essence of China-U.S. economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win. We hope the U.S. will work with China, act according to the important common understandings reached by the two presidents during their phone call, make good use of the economic and trade consultation mechanism, and strive for positive outcomes on the basis of equality, respect and mutual benefit,” he said in a statement to Agri-Pulse.

Trump’s first trade war ended with the phase one agreement signed in January 2020. China committed, among other things, to buying $80 billion worth of agricultural commodities over a two-year-period and eventually purchased more than $61 billion, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

But getting a similar commitment may be more difficult this time, in part because of the availability of Brazilian soybeans, said Basse.

China’s needs also are significantly different now than in 2020. At that time, China was trying to rebuild its hog supplies in the wake of a devastating African swine fever outbreak.

“China may have some incidents of African swine fever, but it's really not the epidemic that it was back in 2018, 19, when they really needed protein and other things. Today, the Chinese are trimming their hog herd and trying to step down on hog numbers to boost productivity,” Basse said.

There aren’t many good alternatives to the Chinese market for U.S. soybeans either, according to the American Soybean Association.

Egypt bought a significant amount of soybeans during the last trade war. But so far, other countries aren’t showing much interest in the new U.S. crop, and “when China buys 60% of the traded soybeans in the world, like just, you just can't make the math get there. I mean, there's just not really enough demand,” said Scot Gerlt, chief economist for ASA.

The Trump administration recently touted a trade deal with the European Union that ensures low tariffs on U.S. soybean oil. But the EU isn’t a significant market for the U.S. product, which will continue to be needed domestically for biofuel production, given the relatively high renewable volume obligations that the administration has proposed for 2026 and 2027, said ASA Director of Government Affairs Virginia Houston.

Sherlock, who is president of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association, said there are other Asian markets, such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines, that could be promising for U.S. soybeans, depending on the details of agreements Trump has announced. But those countries often lack the ports and processing capacity to handle Panamax ships loaded with soybeans, he said.

The share of U.S. soybean production that’s exported to China jumped from 11% for the 2018-19 marketing year to 31% for 2020-21 but then fell to 22% for 2023-24 before Trump took office and increased tariffs on China.

The administration is well aware of growers' concerns.

On Aug. 11, Trump signed an executive order to extend a deadline for higher tariffs on Chinese exports until November. In a social media post the day before, Trump said he hoped the Chinese would “quadruple” their purchases of U.S. soybeans, asserting that China was “worried about its shortage” of the commodity.

ASA appealed to Trump on Aug. 19 to reach a trade agreement with China, warning that what has long been the biggest export market for U.S. soy doesn’t have a single order in for this fall’s harvest.

“Soybean farmers are under extreme financial stress," the group said in a letter to the White House. “Prices continue to drop and at the same time our farmers are paying significantly more for inputs and equipment. U.S. soybean farmers cannot survive a prolonged trade dispute with our largest customer.”

The letter was accompanied by an 11-page white paper that noted China has normally ordered about 14% of its expected purchases of U.S. soybeans by August and had ordered 27% of its purchases in August 2022.

Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden met with leaders of ASA on Tuesday at the annual Farm Progress Show in Decatur, Illinois.

During the show, Vaden noted that the Trump administration last month initiated a trade case against Brazil over the idea that deforestation is unfairly subsidizing its exports to China in competition with U.S. farmers. He urged farm groups to testify in support of the case at a hearing in September.

"One thing we've got to look at is who our competition is, and that's Brazil. That's why there's a Section 301 investigation looking at how Brazil is competing with American soybean farmers," Vaden told reporters.

In a release last month, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said, "Brazil appears to be failing to effectively enforce laws and regulations designed to stop illegal deforestation, thereby undermining the competitiveness of U.S. producers of timber and agricultural products."

Meanwhile, Sherlock was somewhat more optimistic about the trade situation after a meeting last week with a Chinese delegation.

“They still want to do business with us. … Right now, with the tariff situation, our beans are too expensive compared to Brazilian beans for them because of the retaliatory tariffs China put on us,” Sherlock said. “So, we really need our governments to come to an agreement.”

For more news, go to Agri-Pulse.com.