What’s New in Ag Investing? Olga Polunina Leads Discussion at WIA Summit 2025

By Michelle Pelletier Marshall, Women in Agribusiness Media (July 29, 2025)

Risk-adjusted returns, long-term financial gains, inflation hedging, investment portfolio diversification, consistent returns and resilience through unstable market cycles… just some of the benefits of investing in the ag sector. Not to mention holding a tangible asset with inherent real estate value and passive income, the ability to influence environmental conservation and sustainability, and play a critical role in providing a healthy and resilient global food system.

With the global agribusiness market valued at $3.4 trillion in 2024, and the global agtech market set to grow at a CAGR of 12.2 percent and be worth $74 billion by 2034, the opportunity for investment is huge and multi-faceted. There’s also significant activity in mergers and acquisitions in the sector (over the last four decades to the first quarter of 2024, a total of 19,521 transactions in the agricultural products and services industry have been recorded with a value of $1.7 trillion, according to the Institute for Mergers, Acquisitions and Alliances), including the recent $8.2 billion merger between agribusiness giants Bunge and Viterra.

So where is ag investing at right now? How have market disruptions and unforeseen variables changed the trajectory? What does the future hold?

Enter Olga Polunina, managing director with Independence Point Advisors, a women-owned investment bank headquartered in New York City. Polunina, who specializes in sustainability-focused investment banking, will moderate the “Investing Trends in Agriculture” panel at the 14th annual Women in Agribusiness (WIA) Summit, September 22-24 in Orlando, Florida, and share the stage with Nina Krause of Nuveen Natural Capital, Michelle Sweda Ewart of Farmland LP, and Kristen Owen from Oppenheimer. These experts in alternative investments will provide a view into the marketplace and discuss the investment appetite for agricultural assets and the impact of current geopolitical trends on the sector.

The Ag Investing panel for the upcoming Women in Agribusiness Summit

WIA Today got a few minutes for questions with Polunina on a steamy summer day in NYC.

1). Please give us a 360 view on the current state of play in agriculture.

Polunina: The ag sector is a pillar of the U.S. economy and continues to draw attention. Following COVID, a confluence of high commodity prices, supply chain dislocation, and low interest rates drove record farm incomes and strong profitability for input producers and OEMs in 2021–22. Since then, the sector has been recalibrating. Channel destocking, lower corn and soybean prices, and higher financing costs have weighed on grower sentiment and constrained both capex and M&A activity in the short term. While we’ve seen some outflows from “tourist” investors, institutional capital with domain expertise remains engaged and is actively watching for opportunistic entry points. Yet, early indications suggest we are through most of the channel de-stocking, and macro appears to be constructive – all signs point to optimism in investing and dealmaking into H2 2025 and beyond.

2). How has the ag investment sector been affected by the recent dynamic shifts in business and the uncertainties in administrative policies?

Polunina: The ag landscape has always been extremely sensitive to government policy as well as international trade flows. In recent developments – after a one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill in late 2024, the July 2025 passage of the full OBBB locked in ag safety net programs – including PLC, ARC, and crop insurance – through 2031, with over $65 billion in allocated funding. This removed a major policy overhang and improved visibility for investors evaluating capital-intensive farm infrastructure, inputs, and risk management tools.

At the same time, evolving trade relationships, particularly with China – and ongoing geopolitical tensions – have added volatility to commodity flows. While resulting pressure on commodity prices has depressed farm incomes, it has also heightened focus on domestic production and security of supply chains, increasing investor appetites for assets and enabling technologies.

Finally, while agtech remains a strategic priority, adoption cycles have slowed given margin compression at the farm level. Farmers are still looking for innovation that enhances their bottom line and/or reduces risk, but are being very selective. Global majors both on the crop input and OEM side are actively looking to enhance their own pipelines of new products, while balancing budget pressure – and so are looking to strategically enhance internal R&D with high-ROI M&A. Focus is on incremental innovation that adds value day one – and independently of government policy.

3). What does all of this mean for the M&A and investing landscape? What are the lessons you and your panelists can draw from your history watching these cycles.

Polunina: We’re seeing a tempered M&A environment across the board, but specifically in ag – as macro uncertainty, channel pressure (resulting in margin pressure both at buyers and sellers), and continued high interest rates delay investment decisions. The majors are taking the time to review their pipelines and assess priority acquisition targets, as well as selectively disposing of non-core assets. As the cycle turns – and we’re already seeing early signs of stabilization – we would expect M&A appetite to rebound meaningfully. As AgTechNavigator recently highlighted, the spend rate in ag M&A is over 10x higher when corn is trading above $7/bushel vs below $4. We’ve already seen some exciting investments in innovative technology in Q2 – such as John Deere’s acquisition of Sentera, and Syngenta’s purchase of Intrinsyx Bio, and I’m excited to see more to come. 

On the investment side, we’re seeing investors doubling down on their focus areas – farmland continues to be attractive to those looking for its inflation-hedging characteristics, low correlation to traditional assets, and focus on long term demand for food and renewable inputs. At the same time, we’re seeing significant price discipline and focus on asset quality, water access, and operational leverage.

In venture and growth, fundraising remains challenging – still nearly 50 percent off 2021 levels. Deployment is cautious, especially in agtech, where exits have been limited. Still, Q2 saw a 25 percent increase in agtech VC activity quarter-over-quarter – an encouraging signal heading into H2.

4). The panel of women investment directors at WIA Summit 2025 is a powerhouse of investment logic and know-how. What are a couple takeaways that attendees can expect to learn?

Polunina: I’m so thrilled to have the opportunity to moderate such a high-powered panel. The growth of this exceptional conference – and the caliber of expertise it attracts – truly reflects the rising influence and leadership of women across agriculture and investing. It’s exciting to see this community continue to deepen and expand, bringing fresh perspectives and sharper capital discipline to a sector that is both foundational and rapidly evolving.

WIA Summit 2024, Denver

Nina, Michelle, and Kristen each bring deep domain expertise – from natural capital, to institutional farmland investment, to strategic positioning within ag corporates. I’m particularly looking forward to digging into how each of them approaches long-term value creation in their respective arenas, especially in light of the current macro headwinds, geopolitical tensions, and shifting policy frameworks. We’ll explore how their investment theses are evolving, where they’re seeing opportunity, and how they leverage their unique edge.

One thing I always enjoy about women-led panels is the tone: thoughtful, data-driven, and refreshingly candid. I’m confident this conversation will offer exactly that – and deliver real insight to anyone thinking seriously about capital deployment in the ag value chain today.

Visit the Women in Agribusiness website for more details on the 25 sessions featuring 60+ industry expert speakers. We’ll talk Trade Policy & Market Access; Generative AI’s place in Ag; Weather Impact; Farmer’s Barometer; Supply Chain Risk Management and more. See the full agenda here.

ABOUT OLGA POLUNINA

Olga Polunina is a managing director at Independence Point Advisors leading the agtech and sustainability practice. She previously spent almost 14 years at J.P. Morgan in the chemicals and ag investment banking team, and leading the early-stage private capital markets team. Polunina focuses on advising ag & materials companies on mergers, acquisitions and capital raising. She is an avid runner and tennis player. Polunina lives in NYC, and is a graduate of Cambridge University.